Bad Statistics or Passion of the People

We’ll slice the watermelon at election time. Politicians, beware of statistics!

As I write this, the rising sun promises to burn off a heavy overnight frost. It’s a gorgeous and still fall morning. The only sounds we hear are leaves from our maples falling, a long-distance crow conversation and some lively little chickadee songs. There are salmon, deer, and upland birds. Already I’m planning the rest of my day in the back of my mind. If salmon are included, they will gladly wait until the water warms a bit in the afternoon. So will I.

Although statistics should always be taken with a grain of salt, I’m seeing a particularly dubious one.

That disturbs me because I know that it can easily be misinterpreted by those who make important policy and decisions, our fishery administrators and politicians.

In 2009, we sold 1650 salmon licenses to Nova Scotia residents and 580 to non-residents, for a total of 2230. Back around 1980, at the time special salmon licenses were introduced in Nova Scotia, total salmon license sales were approximately 8000. Does this mean that the number of salmon anglers in Nova Scotia has shrunk by 72 %, making Atlantic salmon angler votes an insignificant number? Definitely not! Here’s why:

Many Nova Scotia salmon anglers, although they still reside in Nova Scotia, now take their tourist dollars to other provinces that offer salmon fishing, i.e. Newfoundland, Quebec, New Brunswick and British Columbia. Also, since live-release has been required for most salmon fishing in Nova Scotia, no salmon license or catch-and-effort report is required as long as the angler is willing to fish under the guise of trout fishing. Do these people want a return to a legitimate and productive fishery here in Nova Scotia? Absolutely! Are they counted in salmon license sales and report stats? Nope.

These two factors make salmon license sales numbers useless for estimating the number of voters committed to salmon angling and also for catch and effort estimates. The problem is, of course, our federal Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) policy. Only government can turn a useful and reliable system like Nova Scotia’s tag-license into a meaningless mess that benefits no-one. Only government can make Nova Scotia a poor option when planning a fishing holiday because it can`t announce salmon seasons in time. Does this remind you of the long-gun registry’s reliability, popularity and usefulness? It should, because, here again, some of Nova Scotia’s MPs may have based their support upon bogus numbers.

I was delighted to meet our MLA, Jim Boudreau, at a fund-raising event for Nova Scotia’s Atlantic salmon fishery in Antigonish last Saturday evening. The event was very well supported and I’m sure that Jim felt that the passion displayed toward Atlantic salmon by a full house of real people was far more genuine than some dubious statistics that cross his desk. He saw us putting our money where it matters most to us.

We’ll slice the watermelon at election time. Politicians, beware of statistics!

Please send comments and suggestions to slim@rivermagic.ca.

Please stay on the line …